The Syrian Civil War is a threat to the interests of the western world in many ways. Without international intervention there is only one outcome that the West and the Syrian people would benefit from: The moderate rebels succeed, drive the jihadists out of the country and establish a functioning democratic government in Syria. Unfortunately this outcome of the civil war is rather unlikely, while the many other possible outcomes seem not very auspicious. Syria could fall in the hands of the jihadists and become a failed state like Somalia, or, in the worst case, an islamist state like the former Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Even if the moderate rebels are successful and drive Bashar al-Assad out of the country like Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia, capture him like Saddam Hussein in Iraq or kill him like Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, the jihadist groups will claim their piece of the cake. This could lead to a situation like in Iraq, where islamist groups terrorize the population and weaken the government.
After three years of insurgency, the rebels did not manage to gain substantial military successes. The Assad regime still holds the greater part of the country, partially because of the support from Iran and the Hisbollah. If the West would intervene in Syria in support for the rebels, for example by establishing a no-fly zone, this would not be as simple as it was in Libya in 2011. The Syrian military is stronger and better equipped, it has a functioning air defense against close-range targets. But more important than this are its international friends. Especially Russia is very eager to watch the back of its middle eastern ally. While the Libyan no-fly zone was established with approval of the UN World Security Council, the Russian veto for an equal decision regarding Syria seems at the present situation inevitable.
After the invasion of Iraq by the “Alliance of the Willing” lead by the U.S. that crushed the reign of the Ba’ath party and left Iraq in a state of chaos that will continue for years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has risen to become a major power in the region and an increasing threat to the interests of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. In the clash between Sunnis and Alawites, a Shia sect, in Syria, both countries support one side of the conflict. Three years after the insurgency started, the Syrian Civil War has become a proxy war between regional powers to increase their influence in the Middle East. The West, relying on Saudi oil imports and especially the U.S. as a close ally of the kingdom are still supporting the rebels or at least ignore Saudi Arabia’s financial and military help for Sunni groups. But it becomes increasingly difficult to explain why the rule of the Assad regime is a bigger threat to the Syrian people, the region and international security than jihadist and al’Qaeda-affiliated groups acquiring power in Syria.
It is too late for the West to take part in any military action in the Syrian Civil War. Soon it would have to fight radical islamist rebels rather than the Syrian Armed Forces. But the consequences of the muslim world hearing the news that western countries attack the Syrian opposition would be extremely undesirable. It would most likely lead to a radicalization among muslims all over the world, a nightmare for international security. So what to do?
Either way, Assad has to go. But does the Syrian state? The insurgency started as a protest for more democracy, civil participation and rule of law. President Assad as the symbol of oppression among the members of the Syrian opposition must resign, his governance will not be accepted by the majority of the people any more. On the other hand, the threat of islamist groups acquiring power over Syria is equally unpleasant. To achieve peace, Assad has to resign and the moderate rebels of the Free Syrian Army have to accept this opportunity as their only chance for peace. A ceasefire during the negotiations in Switzerland later this month would be a sign of good will.
The jihadist groups will not accept this peace. But the reputation of the Syrian Armed Forces after three years of fighting against it’s own people is extremely bad. It will need military support from the international community to defeat the islamist groups that are already establishing themselves in Syria. All this has to happen soon. Once the islamists control a region it will be very difficult to get rid of them.
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