A recipe for disaster - Why Iraq's national reconciliation is heading for yet another collision

After months of confusion, the White House finally released its strategy on defeating the slaughtering and marauding hordes of ISIS. Even though it remains almost unmentioned, the backbone of this approach is not superior air power as many commentators believe, but the (re-)establishment of an inclusive Iraqi government which makes sure that the country becomes a sectarian and ethnic melting pot in which Sunnis and Shias, Arabs and Kurds and any other groups and minorities can share power and live together peacefully. Now if you think that this sounds like a solid plan, the following quote from a speech by former U.S. President George W. Bush, two and a half years after his invasion of Iraq, will not appear utterly absurd to you: “The seeds of freedom have only recently been planted in Iraq, but democracy, when it grows, is not a fragile flower, it is a healthy, sturdy tree.” I sincerely hope though that most people are as deeply disturbed by this witless prediction as I am, as current events in the Middle East do not leave much free space for interpretation.

Correspondence between U.S. President George W. Bush and his national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, June 2004.

In my last three posts I have focussed on the most prominent reasons why the Middle East is in such a period of turmoil right now. I don’t want to repeat myself, so here is the short summary: Baghdad is not New York, the Tigris is not the Hudson River. The believe - which was hold by numerous American politicians - that one can simply invade Iraq and plant the “seed of democracy” displays an alarming ignorance and naïvety. It seems quite difficult that one could surpass such appalling lack of insight, but Senator John McCain accepted - and mastered - the challenge: “There is not a history of clashes that are violent between Sunnis and Shias, so I think they can probably come along” (April 23, 2003). Well, I think they probably can't, as recent events have made it painfully obvious that this is complete nonsense. In fact conflict and oppression among these sects have been going on for over a thousand years. Of course there have been ups and downs, but after the Iraq War all the signs were pointing at collision. Today many wonder whether it is the seed that was deficient or if the ground was not fertile enough to host the “tree of democracy”.

What matters here is not to solve the enigma why western style democracy with its notions of tolerance, pluralism of values and multiculturalism isn’t working in the completely artificial and forced union without any civic traditions that constitutes Iraq. What is much more important is that western leaders should shed their wishful thinking and finally acknowledge this fact and accept the consequences that result from it. Even though not all countries in the Arab World are divided along sectarian and ethnic lines, there is not a single stable democracy in this region. It will always be a mystery to me why western leaders still believe that Iraq of all countries can beat the odds and become the breeding ground of Mr. Bush’s sturdy tree. Instead of accepting the inevitable and working out new policies, our policymakers beat around the bush and try to preserve something that merely exists on paper and in the minds of some amazingly naïve optimists.

A Vehicle Born Improvised Explosive Devise (VBIED) explosion in Baghdad in 2006.

Even with a more inclusive government in office, it is difficult to believe that Iraq will ever achieve real reconciliation between Sunnis and Shias, Arabs and Kurds. I am not saying that each and every Sunni hates Shias and vice versa, but the divisions run very deep. Many grievances have not been addressed properly and continue to spoil national reconciliation. For example, Iraq’s Shias and Kurds suffered decades of brutal oppression by the governing Sunni minority. Let’s also not forget events like the murderous al-Anfal Campaign that culminated in the genocidal Halabja Massacre against Kurdish civilians, the ongoing insurgency in Iraq with its temporary phases of civil war (for instance in 2006-07 or these days) and the thousands of suicide bombers that killed countless innocent civilians in Baghdad and other cities.

Iraq's ethnoreligious groups. Source: nationmaster.com.

So what is the alternative? Another autocracy? Well, since the Cold War is over, this is not really an option any more. So what else? What could solve the problem of sectarian and ethnic clashes in a country whose borders were drawn arbitrarily by foreign powers (Britain and France in the Sykes-Picot Agreement) during WWI? Catch my drift? Even though it is often regarded as opening Pandora’s box, there is a third option to yet another futile attempt to western style democracy and a return to dictatorship: the division of Iraq into three parts, Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish, either as three completely independent states or as autonomous regions in a very federal Iraq. In fact, many Kurds dream of their own state (“Kurdistan”) for many decades now and were even willing to fight bloody insurgencies with their central government, for example the PKK in Turkey, to gain independence. Similarly, many Sunnis, once they realized that the shoe is on the other foot and that their privileges were irrevocably gone after the Ba'athist regime collapsed, would prefer independence over a weak position in a predominately Shia state. And for the Shias themselves, not being exposed to sectarian violence while sitting on the bulk of Iraq's oil reserves doesn’t sound all that bad, too. That way the sects and ethnic groups could work out their issues for themselves. Of course there would have to be some sort of deal regarding the division of Iraq’s oil wealth (as there are hardly any oil reserves in Sunni areas of Iraq).

It is high time for the international community to realize that there won’t be a unified Iraq and that a strategy based on such hopes is doomed to fail. The sectarian and ethnic tensions which were suppressed during Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship boiled to the surface after his fall and constitute the very basis of today’s civil war. Preserving a forced union of resentful neighbors will not lead to stability, but instead is the precondition for insurgency and chaos. For the sake of the many people that have to die and suffer every day in Iraq thanks to this failed policy, let’s hope our leaders will finally realize that the maintainance of the status quo is unbearable and blocks the way to a stable Middle East.