Can ISIS Shoot Down Your Airplane?

It was shocking news for every air traveller when Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 — an international passenger flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur — was shot down with a surface-to-air missile on 17 July 2014. Even though the downing of MH17 was most likely an unintentional hit by either Ukrainian separatists or Russian soldiers during the ongoing war in Donbass, none of the 283 passengers and 15 crew members on board survived the crash, making it painfully clear that surface-to-air missiles pose a considerable threat to civilian aviation.

The bomb ISIS claims to have used to down Metrojet Flight 9268

While the downing of MH17 was most probably a tragic accident, there is no doubt that many terrorist groups would be disturbingly excited to be able to shoot down a civilian aircraft. Latest proof for this was the downing of Metrojet Flight 9268, heading from from Sharm el-Sheikh to Saint Petersburg. International investigations concluded that the passenger aircraft was brought down by a bomb, which was planted on board before the flight left Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport. Again, all 217 passengers and seven crew members died. Shortly after the crash, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)’s Sinai branch claimed responsibility for the bombing, a clear indicator that ISIS is keen on targeting civilian aviation. Fortunately, airport security is relatively tight in many countries, making airplane bombings a very difficult endeavour. But how likely is it that ISIS will shoot down an international passenger flight with a surface-to-air missile?

Russian Buk-M1-2 SAM system

The first thing you need to know is that the missile that shot down MH17 was a Russian made Buk missile (SA-11). A Buk missile can only be launched when mounted on a platform (a specifically designed tank, a ship, etc.), basically a system that is very difficult to acquire, transport, and hide. ISIS and other terrorist groups will find it extremely difficult to get their hands on such a system, and securing it from coalition airstrikes would prove close to impossible. Fortunately (for them), the international arms market offers another option that is much more suitable for their need: Man-Portable Air-Defence Systems, short MANPADS. These shoulder-launched anti-aircraft weapons seem to be the ideal tool for terrorists and insurgents as they are relatively cheap, light, compact, easy to transport and conceal, and can be handled by a single individual. In order to hit their target (usually an airplane or helicopter), MANPADS have sophisticated guidance systems: passive infrared (IR) seekers, radio command line-of-sight (CLOS), laser-beam riders, and, most recently, global positioning technology. The U.S. Government estimated in 2004 that between 500,000–750,000 missiles for MANPADS were in existence, with approx. one per cent of them being on the hands of Non-State Armed Groups (NSAG). The next question therefor has to be: Does ISIS have access to MANPADS?

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Soviet Strela-2, or, in NATO-speak, SA-7 missile and launcher

At the height of the Libyan Revolution in 2011, Colonel Gaddafi made a remarkable statement. He announced that Libya’s “arms depots are now open and the masses are being equipped with all sorts of weapons in defence of Libya's independence, unity and honour.” For those who don’t know how Gaddafi’s plan worked out: He was shot dead shortly after, and the Libyan Revolution eventually transformed into the Libyan Civil War. The collapse of his government also resulted in what the Small Arms Survey calls “one of the most significant arms proliferation events of the 21st century.” Libyan rebels and civilians looted the country’s vast arms depots, capturing tens of thousands of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW), including hundreds, possibly thousands of MANPADS. Many of the firearms found their way into the hands of jihadists in Syria or spread throughout North Africa, while the remaining SALW help to fuel the ongoing civil war in Libya. It is almost certain that ISIS received its fair share of Gaddafi’s MANPADS, predominantly IR guided Strela-2 pattern missiles.

Strela-2 MANPADS looted by Libyan Salafi Jihadi group Ansar al-Sharia. Note the missing gripstocks

Another source of MANPADS are other Syrian rebel groups that are supported by foreign powers. For instance, ISIS was able to “acquire” FN-6 systems that were originally transferred to more moderate rebel groups by Qatar. The FN-6 is a Chinese third generation passive infrared homing (IR) MANPADS. According to the Small Arms Survey, almost all other MANPADS models that have been sighted in the hands of Syrian rebels — at least seven more models, including at least three models not previously seen outside of government control in other countries — were designed by the former Soviet Union or Russia. It is therefore safe to say that ISIS has access to MANPADS. There are even reports of ISIS militants trying to shoot down coalition aircrafts. The next question is therefore: How big is the threat to civilian aviation?

Since its invention in the 1960’s, MANPADS have greatly contributed to human suffering. The most infamous example of their wreckful power was the downing of the civilian airplane Dassault Falcon 50 on 6 April 1994 as it prepared to land in Kigali, Rwanda. All people on board — three French crew and nine passengers, including Rwandan president Juvénal Habyarimana and Burundian president Cyprien Ntaryamira — were killed when the plane crashed and exploded. The incident lead directly to the Rwandan Genocide (which began the following day), in which up to 1,000,000 Rwandans were slaughtered.

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Ansar al-Sharia fighters holding Strela-2 MANPADS

Since the Air Rhodesia Viscount Shootdown in 1978, the first incidence of a civilian aircraft being shot down by a MANPADS, more than 40 civilian aircrafts have been hit by MANPADS, resulting in at least 28 crashes and over 800 fatalities worldwide. This means that, on average, 21 passengers and crew members of civilian aircrafts die each year in MANPADS related incidents. If that sounds much to you, consider this: According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one research study reported an average of 22 deaths a year by cows in the US alone (typically due to stomping or goring). But maybe the reason for the relatively small number of MANPADS attacks on civilian aircrafts can be explained by the previous shortage of groups vicious enough to do such a heinous thing? Admittedly, ISIS makes every effort to prove that they are capable of virtually any conceivable cruelty, so shooting down an airplane full of innocent noncombatants seems to lie well within their framework of savagery. Combined with the increasing availability of MANPADS, including recent-generation systems, there might indeed be a risk that the number of MANPADS fatalities will go up in the coming years.

The good news is: There are actually numerous countermeasures to fend off or distract MANPADS missiles. These are, however, almost exclusively used by military aircrafts — with a few exceptions: As a reaction to an attempted downing of an Israeli civilian airplane leaving Mombasa, Kenya, in 2002, when two shoulder-fired missiles narrowly missed their target, several Israeli airlines have adopted safety measures like early warning systems, flares designed to confuse heat seeking missiles, and, most recently, a laser system meant to jam the incoming missile’s “seeker”. However, other airlines have not followed Israel’s example, mostly due to fire hazard and financial concerns. But be warned: Flying with an Israeli airline like El Al might not make your trip much safer. Unfortunately, Israeli airlines are particularly at risk, since they are most certainly the favourite targets of any self-respecting Salafi Jihadi terrorist group.

An HH-60H Seahawk helicopter discharges countermeasure flares

But there are more good news: Even the most modern MANPADS missiles have an effective engagement range of no more than 8,000 metres (26,000 ft), while the much more common and wide-spread Strela-2 system only reaches about half that far. MANPADS are, therefore, no threat to a common civilian airplane at cruising altitude, which is somewhere around 12,000 metres (39,000 ft) or higher. However, they are a threat during an airplane's takeoff and landing. So, to answer the original question if ISIS could shoot down your airplane, I would say it depends on where you are flying to or from. If you are merely crossing the Middle East or North Africa, I think there is little to worry about. Even a stopover in Dubai or Abu Dhabi should not increase your risk dramatically — your airplane will be out of the reach of most MANPADS missiles after 20-30 kilometres (12.5-18.5 miles). Flying from or to an area that experiences an active insurgency is an entirely different story though. But if you really plan on flying to Damascus or a Libyan coastal town, I would say that MANPADS are probably not the biggest threat to your security.